IRENA: Egypt's solar installed capacity can reach 44 GW in 20302018-10-11
In the report, IRENA provides two different scenarios to predict the development of energy systems in Egypt over the next two decades:
(i) scenarios based on current plans and policies;
(ii) Urging the government to reassess long-term energy targets on a regular basis based on an assessment of the potential for renewable energy in Egypt.
In the first scenario, the country's total installed capacity is expected to grow by about 250% to 117 GW, with most of the growth coming from coal, natural gas, wind and solar PV. In this energy structure, solar power installed only accounts for 9GW, coal and natural gas will each occupy 20GW, and wind energy will occupy the third position with 18 GW.
In this energy structure, Egypt's renewable energy covers about 25% of its electricity consumption. This growth will depend on a 119% increase in GDP by 2030, which will also increase energy demand from the 62 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2014 to 133 million tons in 2030, an increase of 117%.
In the second case, the more optimistic scenario is that by 2030, renewable energy can cover about 52% of total electricity demand and 22% of total primary energy consumption. In addition, in this forecasting mode, solar energy will become Egypt's second largest power source after natural gas, with an installed capacity of 44 GW.
At the same time, wind and solar thermal power (CSP) will become the third and fourth sources of electricity in Egypt, about 21 GW and 8 GW, respectively.
To make the second scenario possible, IRENA recommends a series of actions to “reflect the growing cost advantages and other benefits of renewable energy.”
Among the initiatives listed are: continually updating Egypt's energy strategy; improving the regulatory framework; clarifying the institutional roles and responsibilities of wind and solar development; bundling renewable energy projects to enhance risk mitigation and ensuring financial viability; and integrating solar and wind energy potential Measuring activities; and developing plans for local renewable energy manufacturing capabilities.
Egypt is currently deploying solar energy through the Benban PV complex under the FIT program due to expiration, and it is expected that by the end of June 2019, its 1.8 GW capacity power station will be connected to the grid. In addition, the country has two new tenders to support the development of rooftop photovoltaics and large-scale solar energy.