Solar energy will become the second largest power source in 2040, second only to natural gas.2018-11-26
While it is difficult to assert that it does not predict the future, but rather provides a way to explore different possible futures, it does not escape the fact that policy makers around the world will pay attention to this report to help develop their energy agenda. .
The report pointed out that carbon dioxide emissions are rising (1.6%) in 2017), “after three years of flatness”, they may continue to “continue to slowly rise to 2040”, a trajectory “with scientific knowledge” The pace required to deal with climate change is far apart."
In general, the IEA assumes four energy scenarios for 2040: the current policy scenario (CPS), which reflects the absence of changes in today's policies; the new policy scenarios (NPS), including published policies and targets; The Sustainability Scenario (SDS) aims to achieve climate goals and provide universal access to energy and clean air; while the Electrification Future Scenario (FiES), it envisions an increasingly important role for the power industry.
From a relatively positive perspective, the IEA found that by 2040, in each case, solar PV capacity will exceed all other energy sources except natural gas. Specifically, in the NPS scenario, solar PV will surpass wind power by 2025, surpass hydropower by 2030, and surpass coal power by 2040; in the FiES scenario, solar PV will catch up with natural gas in 2040.